Cartesio | a TOUR

The adaptive intelligence engine for your portfolio.

Take a look at how Cartesio continuously interprets macro and market dynamics, generates tactical signals, and optimizes asset allocation for current market conditions. The operating system is about decisions, not just data.

01 | Decode the economic landscape

Understand exactly where we are in the economic cycle, and be the first to know when the economy is shifting gears. Cartesio monitors inflation, growth, monetary policy and many more variables across the US and Europe to identify in which phase are we right now.

Economic Cycle - where are we?

The economic cycle

US
EU
LONG-TERM TREND GROWTHRecoveryExpansionAccelerationPeakMaturityLate CycleSlow-downRecessionEUUS

Insights

06-11-2026
CONCEPT

This is a master MAP displaying the exact GPS coordinates of where we are in the economic cycle, powered by Cartesio’s analysis of 30+ key variables and refreshed daily. Because every cycle phase dictates a unique set of winning and losing assets, identifying the current regime is the foundation for optimizing your portfolio allocation.

CURRENT READINGS

  • Europe - we are in the "maturity phase: later". Growth has stabilized and should continue to stay positive for a while. Rising inflation and tightening monetary policy are likely at some point.
  • US - we are in the "maturity phase: earlier". Growth stabilizes after its peak while unemployment should be at its lowest. This tends to be a sustainable phase of growth that normally lasts long before slowing. Rising inflation and tightening monetary policy are likely at some point.

    • MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Europe: Stocks normally continue to do well in this phase, so equity exposure should remain elevated with focus on quality, large caps, broader international exposure. Gently build exposure to defensive assets such as gold or bonds if inflation is not an issue.

    US:     when the cycle reaches maturity, equity exposure should remain elevated (as stocks are historically resilient in this phase) while focusing on the next set of leaders - from quality to cyclicals, broader international exposure and large caps. Exposure to defensive assets such as gold or bonds should be present: in this phase it is generally a good time to buy longer-dated bonds if inflation is not an issue; but focus on shorter dated bonds or floating rate notes if inflation is rising.

    The economic cycle reflects the natural rotation between expansion and contraction, driven by growth and inflation regimes. Cartesio uses this cyclical anchor for the medium-term strategic asset allocation of our portfolios (including Pantarai ADAPT) before applying tactical overlays.

    Focus on macro dislocations to grasp what is going on under the hood. Spot how close is a recession, where traders do see inflation breakevens, how many interest rate changes are priced-in right now. Over 20 interpreted chapters available.

    Interest Rates - current policy & outlook

    UNITED STATES

    US RATE EXPECTATIONS

    TIGHTER RATES | hiking by 25bps in NEXT 6 months
    Futures pathHikeCutNov26Apr27Sep27Feb28Jul28Dec28May29Oct29Mar30Aug30Jan31Jun314.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%5.0%
    EUROZONE

    EU RATE EXPECTATIONS

    TIGHTER | hiking by 50bps in NEXT 6 months
    Futures PathHikeCutNov26Feb27Jun27Mar28Dec28Sep29Jun30Mar31Dec31Sep322.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%
    EU & US

    OFFICIAL POLICY RATES

    Fed: 3.88% | ECB: 2.50%
    Fed RateECB RateDec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26Sep 261%2%3%4%5%6%

    INSIGHTS

    CONCEPTS

    Interest rates are the master lever central banks use to steer the economy. We track the frontline of monetary policy through three lenses: Market Expectations - forward-looking interest rate paths priced in by investors via Fed Funds and EURIBOR futures; Official Policy Rates - the current benchmark rates set by the Fed and the ECB; The Policy Spread - the shifting gap between US and European interest rates.

    CURRENT READINGS
    • Focusing on the next 6 months, investors are pricing-in TIGHTER interest rates in the US (a 25bps move), and TIGHTER interest rates in Europe (up by 50bps).  Looking further ahead, up to one year from now, US rates are then expected to remain stable, while European rates are then expected to float around those levels.
    • Looking at the current US-EU rate policy divergence, the actual spread (1.67%) is high and keeps moving higher.Interest rate levels between the two regions are quite different at this point. In theory, such divergence should push US bond yields to be clearly higher than EU ones, and should also support the USD (ignoring other factors).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    The ECB’s tightening path is a clear headwind for European fixed income. For European equities, the higher rates will not hurt as long as corporate earnings and economic growth keep pace. Otherwise, expect valuations to cool. Meanwhile, tighter expected rates in the US are likely to negatively impact Treasuries performance. Equities may do well if higher rates come with faster growth; if not, stock prices are likely to slow-down.

    Interest rate hikes act as a brake on the economy—they crush inflation by making borrowing pricier, which eventually chills spending and growth. Conversely, rate cuts act as an accelerator, cheapening money to spark hiring and investment.

    02 | Long-term market drivers

    Discover what force is driving equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and crypto. And identify which markets are cheap or expensive. Over 10 interpreted chapters available.

    What's driving stocks

    Equity Drivers | EU

    Expected growth | top driver
    07-11-202510-12-202520-01-202620-02-202625-03-202629-04-202604-06-202607-07-202607-08-202609-09-202612-10-2026552581611641670200400600Stoxx 600Policy Uncertainty

    Insights

    06-11-2026
    CONCEPT

    Equity markets are a chaotic matrix of competing forces. This dashboard strips out the noise, helping investors identify exactly which macro driver dominates the tape right now and best explains recent stock price movements. Here, we isolate and track the key market relationships driving the Stoxx 600.

    CURRENT READINGS
    • The 1-Month Picture - Rising policy uncertainty has decoupled from rising stock prices (the 1-month daily correlation is at 0.33).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Over the last quarter, Real Yields show the highest correlation (0.96) with stock prices among the selected drivers, while Short-term Yields show the lowest/most inverted correlation (-0.48). Although Real Yields has a higher absolute correlation (0.96), its direction doesn't imply causation. Instead, looking at logical drivers, Macroeconomic growth expectations are the main engine for stocks. Equities are trading rationally on fundamental economic expansion.


    In a typical market regime, equities thrive on a predictable formula: fading policy risk, expanding corporate earnings, rising economic growth expectations (via PMIs), and falling real yields. When the data detours from this script, it’s a clear signal that an alternative macro force is driving the narrative.

    The relationship between short-term yields and stock prices remains highly dependent on context instead:

    Growth Mode (Yields Up / Stocks Up) - The market is happily pricing in stronger growth and robust economic activity.

    Tightening Shock (Yields Up / Stocks Down) - The market is choking on sticky inflation or aggressive central bank hikes.

    Policy Relief (Yields Down / Stocks Up) - Fixed income is rallying on expectations of incoming rate cuts and monetary easing.

    Growth Scare (Yields Down / Stocks Down) - Yields are collapsing because investors are bracing for an economic slowdown or outright recession.

    Equity Drivers | US

    Sentiment | top driver
    07-11-202511-12-202515-01-202619-02-202624-03-202627-04-202629-05-202602-07-202605-08-202608-09-202609-10-202661966639708175247966200400600S&P 500Policy Uncertainty

    Insights

    06-11-2026
    CONCEPT

    Refer to the intro above

    CURRENT READINGS
    • The 1-Month Picture - Rising policy uncertainty is only partially influencing falling stock prices at the moment, as other factors are having more influence (the 1-month daily correlation is at -0.37).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Over the last quarter, Short-term Yields show the highest correlation (0.77) with stock prices among the selected drivers, while Policy Uncertainty show the lowest/most inverted correlation (-0.37). Although Short-term Yields has a higher absolute correlation (0.77), its direction doesn't imply causation. Instead, looking at logical drivers, Credit market sentiment is the dominant fundamental force. This confirms a broad 'risk-on' environment where institutional high-yield appetite is validating the equity rally.


    In a typical market regime, equities thrive on a predictable formula: fading policy risk, expanding corporate earnings, rising economic growth expectations (via PMIs), and falling real yields. When the data detours from this script, it’s a clear signal that an alternative macro force is driving the narrative.

    The relationship between short-term yields and stock prices remains highly dependent on context instead:

    Growth Mode (Yields Up / Stocks Up) - The market is happily pricing in stronger growth and robust economic activity.

    Tightening Shock (Yields Up / Stocks Down) - The market is choking on sticky inflation or aggressive central bank hikes.

    Policy Relief (Yields Down / Stocks Up) - Fixed income is rallying on expectations of incoming rate cuts and monetary easing.

    Growth Scare (Yields Down / Stocks Down) - Yields are collapsing because investors are bracing for an economic slowdown or outright recession.

    03 | Sentiment

    Are investors euphoric, neutral or fearsome on key assets? And what are the implications? Over 10 interpreted chapters available.

    04 | Portfolio allocation

    We share the daily portfolio allocation of Pantarai ADAPT, our autonomous investment strategy listed in London and Amsterdam. Cartesio adapts asset allocation daily to market conditions.

    Find more details about tactical allocation strategy here.

    SYSTEM STATUS: ACTIVE

    Pantarai ADAPT

    Latest update: 06-11-2026

    ASSET ALLOCATION
    Equities (25.1%)
    Fixed Income & Cash (74.8%)
    Commodities (0.0%)
    CURRENCY REGIME (USD/EUR)
    EUR assets (30.0%)
    USD assets (70.0%)
    US EQUITY (0.0%)
    WORLD EQUITY (5.0%)
    MSCI World5.0%
    EUROPEAN EQUITY (20.1%)
    Euro Stoxx 502.8%
    Stoxx 6001.3%
    EU Defensives7.0%
    EU Low Vol9.0%
    GOVIES & CASH PROXIES (74.8%)
    USD FRNs | cash proxies59.1%
    EU Govies 1-3y15.7%
    COMMODITIES (0.0%)

    Pantarai ADAPT - Evolution of Asset Mix

    Historical Allocation Weight

    2025 2026
    All EquitiesCommoditiesBonds & Cash02-01-202622-01-202611-02-202603-03-202623-03-202610-04-202630-04-202620-05-202609-06-202629-06-202617-07-202606-08-202626-08-202615-09-202605-10-202623-10-202620%40%60%80%100%

    Investing on Auto-pilot.

    Cartesio manages the strategy.
    Autonomously (with human supervision).

    05 | Tactical ETF views

    For subscribers only — Cartesio provides daily momentum indicators across 32 key ETF asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities). Gain clear timing and trend context.

    Equity momentum - key trends

    Trading guidelines
    UNITED STATES

    S&P 500 | Trading Signal

    Strong SELL
    S&P 5008-day MA21-day MA34-day MA55-day MA17-06-202629-06-202609-07-202620-07-202629-07-202607-08-202618-08-202627-08-202608-09-202617-09-202628-09-202607-10-202616-10-202627-10-202605-11-2026730074007500760077007800
    06 | Adaptive portfolios

    For subscribers only - On top of sharing strategic macro and tactical views, Cartesio manages 8x adaptive portfolios, tilted towards different risk profiles. Each model portfolio includes a list of sample, liquid third-party ETFs to help you implement and adapt your allocation.

    Pantarai Asymmetric Beta Allocation

    Forget static, market-unaware portfolios. This suite of ASYMMETRIC BETA investment strategies is powered by a tactical engine at the core, which asset allocation is daily managed by our Agentic AI Cartesio, and anchored by a stable and well-diversified asset mix.

    Each portfolio, aligned to a specific risk profile, adapts to daily market conditions. It is easy to build and effortless to monitor and manage. Disclaimers apply.
    Explore

    ASYMMETRIC Amplify PORTFOLIO

    A Tactical core boosting a 70/30 growth allocation

    S&P 50015.0%NASDAQ11.0%Stoxx 60014.0%Nikkei 2253.0%MSCI EM10.0%EU Govies15.0%US Govies7.0%Pantarai ADAPT25%TACTICAL CORE
    The AMPLIFY portfolio is an asymmetric beta strategy with a moderately aggressive allocation profile.
    Inspired by a classic 70/30 stable allocation to equities & fixed income, it serves as a long-term strategy with a tactical edge.
    Portfolio Guide
    ETF TICKERS
    Inspired by a classic 70/30 stable allocation to equities & fixed income, it serves as a long-term strategy with a tactical edge.
    It seeks to deliver capital appreciation with contained volatility and drawdowns, with a clear ability to further run on the upside and increase protection on the downside.

    Financial markets keep shifting.
    Cartesio moves with them.

    Your Co-pilot for adaptive allocation decisions.