Cartesio | a TOUR

The adaptive intelligence engine for your portfolio.

Take a look at how Cartesio continuously interprets macro and market dynamics, generates tactical signals, and optimizes asset allocation for current market conditions. The operating system is about decisions, not just data.

01 | Decode the economic landscape

Understand exactly where we are in the economic cycle, and be the first to know when the economy is shifting gears. Cartesio monitors inflation, growth, monetary policy and many more variables across the US and Europe to identify in which phase are we right now.

Economic Cycle - where are we?

The economic cycle

US
EU
LONG-TERM TREND GROWTHRecoveryExpansionAccelerationPeakMaturityLate CycleSlow-downRecessionEUUS

Insights

23-09-2026
CONCEPT

This is a master MAP displaying the exact GPS coordinates of where we are in the economic cycle, powered by Cartesio’s analysis of 30+ key variables and refreshed daily. Because every cycle phase dictates a unique set of winning and losing assets, identifying the current regime is the foundation for optimizing your portfolio allocation.

CURRENT READINGS

  • Europe - we are in the "acceleration phase: later". We are clearly into a period of faster economic growth, improving consumer and investor confidence.
  • US - we are in the "peak phase: earlier". We are in a period of peak economic growth in this cycle: peak GDP, maximum employment, strong consumer confidence.

    • MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Europe: Portfolio: time to go overweight stocks, preferring cyclical sectors, growth and momentum factors.

    US:     at peak time we should normally have maximum exposure to equity risk and focus on the momentum style, limiting exposure to safer bonds limited while eventually focusing on spread products.

    The economic cycle reflects the natural rotation between expansion and contraction, driven by growth and inflation regimes. Cartesio uses this cyclical anchor for the medium-term strategic asset allocation of our portfolios (including Pantarai ADAPT) before applying tactical overlays.

    Focus on macro dislocations to grasp what is going on under the hood. Spot how close is a recession, where traders do see inflation breakevens, how many interest rate changes are priced-in right now. Over 20 interpreted chapters available.

    Interest Rates - current policy & outlook

    UNITED STATES

    US Rate Expectations

    NEXT - TIGHTER | 50 bps
    Futures pathHikeCutSep26Feb27Jul27Dec27May28Oct28Mar29Aug29Jan30Jun30Nov30Apr314.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%
    EUROZONE

    EU Rate Expectations

    NEXT - MUCH TIGHTER | 75 bps
    Futures PathHikeCutOct26Dec26Feb27Jun27Dec27Jun28Dec28Jun29Dec29Jun30Dec30Jun31Dec31Jun322.8%2.9%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.3%3.4%
    EU & US

    Official Policy Rates

    Fed: 3.63% | ECB: 2.50%
    Fed RateECB RateOct 23Jan 24Apr 24Jul 24Oct 24Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 261%2%3%4%5%6%

    Insights

    CONCEPT

    Interest rates are the master lever central banks use to steer the economy. We track the frontline of monetary policy through three lenses: Market Expectations - forward-looking interest rate paths priced in by investors via Fed Funds and EURIBOR futures; Official Policy Rates - the current benchmark rates set by the Fed and the ECB; The Policy Spread - the shifting gap between US and European interest rates.

    CURRENT READINGS
    • Focusing on the next 6 months, investors are pricing-in TIGHTER interest rates in the US (a 50bps move), and MUCH TIGHTER interest rates in Europe (up by 75bps). Looking further ahead, up to one year from now, US rates are then expected to move by 100bps up, while European rates are then expected to float around those levels.
    • Looking at the current US-EU rate policy divergence, the actual spread (1.61%) is high and is changing direction, moving higher after an earlier decrease.Interest rate levels between the two regions are quite different at this point. In theory, such divergence should push US bond yields to be clearly higher than EU ones, and should also support the USD (ignoring other factors).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    The ECB’s tightening path is a clear headwind for European fixed income. For European equities, the higher rates will not hurt as long as corporate earnings and economic growth keep pace. Otherwise, expect valuations to cool. Meanwhile, tighter expected rates in the US are likely to negatively impact Treasuries performance. Equities may do well if higher rates come with faster growth; if not, stock prices are likely to slow-down.

    Interest rate hikes act as a brake on the economy—they crush inflation by making borrowing pricier, which eventually chills spending and growth. Conversely, rate cuts act as an accelerator, cheapening money to spark hiring and investment.

    02 | Long-term market drivers

    Discover what force is driving equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and crypto. And identify which markets are cheap or expensive. Over 10 interpreted chapters available.

    What's driving stocks

    Equity Drivers | EU

    Short-term Yields | top driver
    24-09-202527-10-202527-11-202507-01-202609-02-202612-03-202616-04-202621-05-202624-06-202627-07-202627-08-2026539572605638672200400600Stoxx 600Policy Uncertainty

    Insights

    23-09-2026
    CONCEPT

    Equity markets are a chaotic matrix of competing forces. This dashboard strips out the noise, helping investors identify exactly which macro driver dominates the tape right now and best explains recent stock price movements. Here, we isolate and track the key market relationships driving the Stoxx 600.

    CURRENT READINGS
    • The 1-Month Picture - Rising policy uncertainty is only partially influencing falling stock prices at the moment, as other factors are having more influence (the 1-month daily correlation is at -0.24).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Over the last quarter, Real Yields show the highest correlation (0.34) with stock prices among the selected drivers, while Short-term Yields show the lowest/most inverted correlation (-0.92). Looking at their causal relationships, Short-term Yields are currently the primary headwind for equities. The market's pricing mechanism is heavily anchored to short-term interest rate fears and tightening liquidity.


    In a typical market regime, equities thrive on a predictable formula: fading policy risk, expanding corporate earnings, rising economic growth expectations (via PMIs), and falling real yields. When the data detours from this script, it’s a clear signal that an alternative macro force is driving the narrative.

    The relationship between short-term yields and stock prices remains highly dependent on context instead:

    Growth Mode (Yields Up / Stocks Up) - The market is happily pricing in stronger growth and robust economic activity.

    Tightening Shock (Yields Up / Stocks Down) - The market is choking on sticky inflation or aggressive central bank hikes.

    Policy Relief (Yields Down / Stocks Up) - Fixed income is rallying on expectations of incoming rate cuts and monetary easing.

    Growth Scare (Yields Down / Stocks Down) - Yields are collapsing because investors are bracing for an economic slowdown or outright recession.

    Equity Drivers | US

    Expected growth | top driver
    24-09-202527-10-202528-11-202502-01-202605-02-202611-03-202614-04-202615-05-202618-06-202623-07-202625-08-202661986635707175087945200400600S&P 500Policy Uncertainty

    Insights

    23-09-2026
    CONCEPT

    Refer to the intro above

    CURRENT READINGS
    • The 1-Month Picture - Fading policy uncertainty is only partially influencing rising stock prices at the moment, as other factors are having more influence (the 1-month daily correlation is at -0.32).
    MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Over the last quarter, Expected growth show the highest correlation (0.93) with stock prices among the selected drivers, while Policy Uncertainty show the lowest/most inverted correlation (-0.32). Looking at their causal relationships, Macroeconomic growth expectations are the main engine for stocks. Equities are trading rationally on fundamental economic expansion.


    In a typical market regime, equities thrive on a predictable formula: fading policy risk, expanding corporate earnings, rising economic growth expectations (via PMIs), and falling real yields. When the data detours from this script, it’s a clear signal that an alternative macro force is driving the narrative.

    The relationship between short-term yields and stock prices remains highly dependent on context instead:

    Growth Mode (Yields Up / Stocks Up) - The market is happily pricing in stronger growth and robust economic activity.

    Tightening Shock (Yields Up / Stocks Down) - The market is choking on sticky inflation or aggressive central bank hikes.

    Policy Relief (Yields Down / Stocks Up) - Fixed income is rallying on expectations of incoming rate cuts and monetary easing.

    Growth Scare (Yields Down / Stocks Down) - Yields are collapsing because investors are bracing for an economic slowdown or outright recession.

    03 | Sentiment

    Are investors euphoric, neutral or fearsome on key assets? And what are the implications? Over 10 interpreted chapters available.

    Sentiment Monitor

    CLUES
    04 | Portfolio allocation

    We share the daily portfolio allocation of Pantarai ADAPT, our autonomous investment strategy listed in London and Amsterdam. Cartesio adapts asset allocation daily to market conditions.

    Find more details about tactical allocation strategy here.

    SYSTEM STATUS: ACTIVE

    Pantarai ADAPT

    Latest update: 23-09-2026

    Investment process
    ASSET ALLOCATION
    Equities (80.0%)
    Fixed Income & Cash (14.6%)
    Commodities (5.4%)
    CURRENCY REGIME (USD/EUR)
    EUR assets (30.0%)
    USD assets (70.0%)
    US EQUITY (44.7%)
    S&P 5006.7%
    Nasdaq 10021.3%
    US Quality5.0%
    WORLD EQUITY (26.3%)
    Emerging Markets6.3%
    MSCI World20.0%
    EUROPEAN EQUITY (9.0%)
    Euro Stoxx 501.0%
    EU Small Caps5.0%
    EU Cyclicals3.0%
    GOVIES & CASH PROXIES (14.6%)
    EU Govies 1-3y9.0%
    US Govies 1-3y2.8%
    EU Govies 7-10y2.8%
    COMMODITIES (5.4%)
    Commodities Basket5.4%

    Pantarai ADAPT - Evolution of Asset Mix

    Historical Allocation Weight

    2025 2026
    |
    All EquitiesCommoditiesBonds & Cash02-01-202620-01-202605-02-202623-02-202611-03-202627-03-202614-04-202630-04-202618-05-202603-06-202619-06-202607-07-202623-07-202610-08-202626-08-202611-09-202620%40%60%80%100%

    Investing on Auto-pilot.

    Cartesio manages the strategy.
    Autonomously (with human supervision).

    05 | Tactical ETF views

    For subscribers only — Cartesio provides daily momentum indicators across 32 key ETF asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities). Gain clear timing and trend context.

    Equity momentum - key trends

    Trading guidelines
    UNITED STATES

    S&P 500 | Trading Signal

    Strong BUY
    S&P 5008-day MA21-day MA34-day MA55-day MA30-04-202611-05-202620-05-202601-06-202610-06-202622-06-202601-07-202613-07-202622-07-202631-07-202611-08-202620-08-202631-08-202610-09-202621-09-20267200740076007800
    06 | Adaptive portfolios

    For subscribers only - On top of sharing strategic macro and tactical views, Cartesio manages 8x adaptive portfolios, tilted towards different risk profiles. Each model portfolio includes a list of sample, liquid third-party ETFs to help you implement and adapt your allocation.

    Pantarai Asymmetric Beta Allocation

    Forget static, market-unaware portfolios. This suite of ASYMMETRIC BETA investment strategies is powered by a tactical engine at the core, which asset allocation is daily managed by our Agentic AI Cartesio, and anchored by a stable and well-diversified asset mix.

    Each portfolio, aligned to a specific risk profile, adapts to daily market conditions. It is easy to build and effortless to monitor and manage. Disclaimers apply.
    Explore

    ASYMMETRIC Amplify PORTFOLIO

    A Tactical core boosting a 70/30 growth allocation

    S&P 50015.0%NASDAQ11.0%Stoxx 60014.0%Nikkei 2253.0%MSCI EM10.0%EU Govies15.0%US Govies7.0%Pantarai ADAPT25%TACTICAL CORE
    The AMPLIFY portfolio is an asymmetric beta strategy with a moderately aggressive allocation profile.
    Inspired by a classic 70/30 stable allocation to equities & fixed income, it serves as a long-term strategy with a tactical edge.
    Portfolio Guide
    ETF TICKERS
    Inspired by a classic 70/30 stable allocation to equities & fixed income, it serves as a long-term strategy with a tactical edge.
    It seeks to deliver capital appreciation with contained volatility and drawdowns, with a clear ability to further run on the upside and increase protection on the downside.

    Financial markets keep shifting.
    Cartesio moves with them.

    Your Co-pilot for adaptive allocation decisions.