Financial conditions in the US

UNITED STATES

Lending to consumers

TIGHTER standards
Number of Banks tightening lending standards on Card Loans (QoQ)Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25-40%-20%20%40%60%
UNITED STATES

Lending to Corporates

EASY Standards
Number of Banks tightening standards on Corporate Loans (QoQ)Dec 16Dec 17Dec 18Dec 19Dec 20Dec 21Dec 22Dec 23Dec 24Dec 25-20%20%40%60%
UNITED STATES

Financial conditions

VERY EASY
Aug 16Jun 17Apr 18Feb 19Dec 19Oct 20Aug 21Jun 22Apr 23Feb 24Dec 24Oct 25Aug 26-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.2

Insights

CONCEPT

Financial conditions quantify overall market stress by bundling interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, and volatility into a single metric. This acts as the ultimate leading indicator for bank behavior: when conditions ease banks turn aggressive in pursuing new business, lowering lending standards and fueling economic growth. When conditions tighten, banks turn defensive, shutting access to credit and slowing down private investment.

CURRENT READINGS
  • Financial Conditions in the US are VERY EASY (at -0.56) and have turned easier vs the previous week's average. The number of banks tightening lending standards vs past quarter on credit card loans is 6.7% - meaning that consumer lending standards are in TIGHTER territory - while on corporate loans is 0.0%, translating into EASY business lending standards.
MARKET IMPLICATIONS

  • Financial conditions and lending standards on two different planets. Markets and the willingness of banks to extend credit seem disconnected.

  • Think of financial conditions as the green light for credit availability. Historically, easy conditions (below 0.15) grease the wheels of the economy by making loans cheap and accessible. When conditions cross into tight territory (above 0.15–0.20), the credit taps start to close, and economic growth starts to stall.